Sitting on a powder keg?

The recent Gujjar protests in Rajasthan, which have now spread to Delhi, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh, are assuming alarming proportions. It began with Gujjars (who are officially designated as OBCs in the state) demanding that they be included under the Scheduled Tribes category. This would entitle them to a better quota in jobs and education.

This was opposed by the Meenas, who are the only Scheduled Tribe in Rajasthan at present. Granting the ST status to the Gujjars will, but obviously, eat into the Meenas' share. While earlier they would have to compete only against fellow Meenas, they will need to compete with Gujjars too for the same opportunities. As a result, the Meenas have opposed this demand and there have been violent clashes. There is also hectic political lobbying by both sides.

I will not go into whether or not the Rajasthan government bungled, or whether the demand by the Gujjars is justified or not. The question here is about the explosive scenario we seem to be moving towards.

However you look at it, it seems difficult for any govt to please both factions - the Meenas and the Gujjars. If the Govt of Rajasthan rejects the Gujjars demands, it will precipitate a further caste war between the Meenas, who will be seen as the saboteurs, and the Gujjars. There is bound to be a lot of bad blood there.

But it would be far worse if the government were to accede to the demands of the Gujjars. Consider for a moment the implications of such a move. It would signal that violence pays. Armtwisting the government through rioting is a feasible way to get your demands met. It will also send the message that all a caste needs to do to get into an SC/ST bracket would be to indulge in violent protests.

While the Gujjars and the Meenas may have a lot of antagonism for each other as a result of this issue, they would both unite if a third caste were to agitate for the granting of ST status to it. We would see bigger caste clashes.

There may be possible workarounds like giving the ST status to Gujjars, but making the Meenas a special sub-category of STs, like a quota within a quota. I'm not sure of the constitutional validity of this, but such a workaround too is bound to fail, since it will soon be questioned why Meenas are given this special treatment, and worse, other castes will demand the same "special" treatment.

It is becoming clear now that there is unlikely to be any easy, mutually acceptable solution. A solution that pleases the Gujjars will anger the Meenas and vice versa.

It is not inconceivable or even improbable, that soon other castes with adequate muscle power will protest for an SC/ST status, even if they really are not backward in any sense. With each demand, it will become increasingly harder to justify one caste having reservations, while the other doesnt. And when the stick, the gun and fire are the preferred means of negotiation, justifications, whether they make sense or not, are bound to go unheard. We seem to be now sitting on a powder keg which may blast at any given moment. What the anti-reservationists have been crying themselves hoarse over, about the divisive power of reservations, seems to ring true.

"I told you so" is sometimes called the most painful sentence in English. But it seems the most apt in this scenario - tragically so.